A Visit to Model Land
Guest: Dr Erica Thompson
From ancient times what we now call mathematical models have been used to predict the arrival of seasons, comet returns, and eclipses. With sophisticated mathematics, good data gathering, and modern computers we can now predict things like the tides and the trajectories of interplanetary probes with considerable accuracy. We have also made progress in predicting weather.
For some phenomena, for example earthquakes, we are still seeking to develop predictive models.
As we heard in Episode 2 of this podcast, AI systems can be described as making predictions based on models, models that are trained on vast collections of data. These models seem intuitively different from the others. However, some truths hold for both kinds of models, in particular while "all models are wrong, some models are useful," as is explained by our guest in this episode in which we eplore the world of models with Dr Erica Thompson.
Recorded: 2024-04-01
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To Read Further
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL091883
"Escape from Model Land by Erica Thompson review – the power and pitfalls of prediction" - The Guardian, 2022-12-30
"Escape from Model Land" by Erica Thompson (https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/erica-thompson/escape-from-model-land/9781541600997)
UCL Department of Science, Technology, Engineering and Public Policy (https://www.ucl.ac.uk/steapp)
London Mathematical Laboratory (https://lml.org.uk/)
Inference from Models (https://www.ericathompson.co.uk/projects/inference-from-models/)
Data Science Institute (DSI) at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) (https://www.lse.ac.uk/DSI)